S03: Imperial Decline

History of China Since 1800

July 2, 2026

Lo Ta-yu: Pearl of the Orient

Key questions

Edward Duncan: Destroying Chinese war junks (1843)
  • Canton Trade: Qing in the World
  • Opium: How did it create the modern world economy?
  • The Great Divergence: What explains Qing’s decline?

Discuss: Story of Filial Piety

Lying Down On The Ice To Get Carp For His Stepmother: Wang Xiang, from The Twenty-Four Paragons of Filial Piety
  • Who are Wang Xiang and Guo Ju?
  • What did they do for their parents?
  • Why are they celebrated for their deeds?

The End

  • Wang Hebao was sentenced to beheading, though the penalty was reduced to one degree due to clemency from the emperor, considering his filial motivations and underage status.

  • On December 25, 1815, Wang Dacai, a barber from Guangshun prefecture in Guizhou province, committed suicide by stabbing an iron rod into his throat.

Cult of Filial Piety: Why?

The Qing state used various methods to support parental authority over both adult and minor children.

  • Children could be punished for accusing parents, even if the accusations were true.
  • Parents could request public beatings or canguing (a form of punishment) for their children.
  • Parricides faced execution by slicing, regardless of mitigating circumstances.
  • The state accepted parents’ testimonies against children while ignoring contradictory evidence.

“Ruling the empire by the principle of filial piety”

Late imperial Chinese law and the imperial state had a specific logic that reinforced parental authority.

  • The law served primarily as a language of politics rather than as a tool for Confucian morality or parental will.
  • Principle of filial piety as a governing mechanism: The focus on dynastic legitimacy and imperial governance was central to the legally sanctioned cult of filiality.
  • In China, where the state is referred to as guojia (state-family), the cult of filiality illuminates the relationship between state and family.

China Central Televsion: Everlasting Classics

Song of the Vagrant Son

游子吟

孟郊 (751-814)

慈母手中线,游子身上衣。 临行密密缝,意恐迟迟归。 谁言寸草心,报得三春晖。

Song of the Vagrant Son

In the mother’s hand, a thread she weaves,
On the wanderer’s body, the clothes she leaves.
As she sews, she stitches with care,
Fearing his return might be rare.
Who says a blade of grass can repay
The warmth of spring’s sun in any way?

Reviving the Family in Contemporary China

“Father and mother are not as dear as Chairman Mao. (爹亲娘亲不如毛主席亲)”

Xi Jinping with mother

Montseqieu on China

Montesquieu (1689-1755)

From the very nature of things, a bad administration is here immediately punished. The want of subsistence, in so populous a country, produces sudden disorders. The reason why the redress of abuses, in other countries, is attended with such difficulty, is, because their effects are not immediately felt; the prince is not informed in so sudden and sensible a manner as in China.

China is therefore a despotic state, whose principle is fear.

China model, according to the Economist

Cover of The Economist, May 4, 2013

Cover of The Economist, October 1, 2022

Debating the China Model

Montesquieu:

  • Stagnation
  • Rule by man, not by law
  • Excessive despotism

State-society relations in tension:

  • Governance on the cheap, growing population but shrinking bureaucracy and tax base
  • Principal agent problem
  • Grassroots activism vs. Vigilance against local power

Tensions in the China Model

Universal ideal…

  • Late imperial Chinese governance was remarkably stable, built on an Emperor, scholar-bureaucrats, and Confucianism.
  • “Benevolent government” meant minimal intervention, low taxes, and moral guidance.
  • The Confucian bureaucracy unified the empire by promoting harmony order and universalism against local groups.

… and particularistic reality

  • Magistrates – outsider, and overworked – depended on managing clerks, private secretaries, and gentry.
  • The state’s reach in the countryside was limited by resources, finances, and local interests.
  • Officials faced a conflict between bureaucratic duties and obligations to personal networks (family, friends).

Chinese Maritime Network: Selden’s Map

Selden’s Map
  • The Selden map is a 17th-century wall map of East Asia, showing areas from Siberia to Java and Japan to Burma.
  • It is named after John Selden (1584–1654), a lawyer and Oxford’s first rabbinic studies scholar.
  • Selden donated the map to Oxford’s Bodleian Library as part of his collection of Oriental manuscripts.

China as Maritime Power

Selden’s Map, Bodleian Library, University of Oxford

Ming China Contacts with the World

Ming China in the World Economy: Domestic and Global Factors

Ming China contacts with outside world
  • A network of trade developed around the South China Sea, involving merchants from tribute-paying states to the Ming dynasty, focusing on Chinese goods and grain.
  • This trade relied on two key conditions: Ming’s ability to produce high-quality goods at reasonable prices; limited foreign access to Ming market.
  • These stable conditions throughout the sixteenth century fostered a strong trading system, creating a “world-economy.”

Europeans in Asia

Portugese

  • Arrived in Macao in 1557
  • Established a trading post on a peninsula
  • Arrival of Jesuit missionaries

Spanish

  • Discovered Manila in 1570
  • Found a trading community of Chinese
  • Sangley Rebellion in 1639, resulting in the massacre of 17K-22K ethnic Chinese.

Dutch

  • Set up base on Java, first in Bantam (1609), then Jakarta (Batavia)
  • Aimed to compete with the Spanish in Manila
  • Established a base in Taiwan in 1623, later ousted by Zheng Chenggong in 1662
  • 1740 Batavia massacre: 10,000 ethnic Chinese+ were massacred

Rethinking European Influence in Maritime Asia

Dutch VOC vessel
  • The Spanish and Portuguese were able to integrate into regional trade in Asia thanks to monopoly of silver from the New World, especially Peru, Bolivia, and Mexico.
  • Conventional wisdom suggests that economic modernity originated from a dynamic West European foundation, but the Europeans were not major players in Maritime East Asia yet.
  • Certain Asian economies were more advanced than European economies until the Industrial Revolution.

China and Long Distance Trade

16th- & 17th-century trading empires

Tea, Silk, Porcelain: Chinese Export to the West

A selection of Ming Dynasty (1368-1644 CE) blue-and-white porcelain. From Chenghua reign, 1465-1487 CE. (British Museum, London)

An uncanny object

  • What are we looking at?
  • How did this figurine travel in time and space? Who were its makers / buyers?
  • What can this object tell us about their makers and the world it was made?

Figuur van een staande man, circa 1720, Dutch National Maritime Museum, 2018.0652

Porcelain figure: Product of Slave Trade and Maritime Trade with China

Figuur van een staande man, circa 1720, Dutch National Maritime Museum, 2018.0652
  • The porcelain figure of an African man, made in Qing China for a European, reflects both European and Chinese views of unfamiliar cultures.
  • Its features, like red lips and scant clothing, are racist depictions of African descent.
  • The figure also has Chinese traits referencing Buddha, including its hairstyle, extended earlobes, lotus leaf base, and a star on the forehead.
  • This statuette represents the blend of European and Asian forms, highlighting the European slave trade and the exchange of ideas and imagery between cultures.

Population Boom

Ming Qing population growth
  • New crops like corn, sweet potatoes, and peanuts were integrated into farming, growing well in marginal areas and complementing existing grain crops.
  • Improvements in irrigation, terracing, grain storage, tools, and organic fertilizers further enhanced food production.
  • The rising population in turn placed pressure on arable land, prompting mass migration from densely populated areas to frontier regions to expand agricultural practices.

Canton trade

View of the front of the hongs at Canton, British Library

Map of Pearl River Delta, Visualizing Culture, MIT

Trade within limits

New-China Street a Canton, 1836-37, by Louis Philippe Alphonse Bichebois, 1801-1850
  • Like the Ming, coastal trade only permitted at designated ports
  • Canton (Guangzhou) as sole port open for Western trade
  • Revenue went to imperial treasury
  • Fixed, seasonal trading period
  • Mobility restriction: Special residential quarter for foreign merchants

Security merchant (cohong) system

A reverse-glass export painting of the Thirteen Factories in Guangzhou.
  • Canton trade system (1757-1842): Hong merchants acted as exclusive liaisons between American traders and Chinese government
  • Hong merchants held licenses, controlled trade, and enforced regulations
  • They purchased imports, arranged exports, ensured compliance

European grievances

Street in Canton, British Library
  • Only allowed to trade in Canton and live in designated quarters
  • Subject to Qing law, with no diplomatic representation

A Revolution is a Tea Party?

W.D. Cooper. “Boston Tea Party.”, The History of North America. London: E. Newberry, 1789. Library of Congress

Tea Party: The Colonists’ Grievances

Tea Party Protests, 2009
  • Boston Tea Party: chests of Chinese tea into Boston Harbor December 16, 1773
  • Target: Tea Act of May 10, 1773, which allowed tax-free tea sales by British East India Company in American colonies
  • Sons of Liberty strongly opposed taxes in Townshend Act as rights violation and destroyed EIC tea shipment

Macartney Embassy, 1793-1794

George Macartney
  • In 1794, Emperor Qianlong received Lord George Macartney.
  • King George III of Great Britain – the same king against whom the American colonies rebelled in 1776 – dispatched Lord Macartney to China
  • Qianlong dismissively informed the British that China had no need for any English goods or inventions, and sends him back to King George III empty handed.
  • The British needed to balance a massive trade deficit fueled by tea addiction.

Macartney Embassy

Earl George Macartney
  • What did the Europeans want?
  • Why didn’t they get want they want?

Qianlong’s Letter to King George III

Hitherto, all European nations, including your own country’s barbarian merchants, have carried on their trade with Our Celestial Empire at Canton. Such has been the procedure for many years, although Our Celestial Empire possesses all things in prolific abundance and lacks no product within its borders. There was therefore no need to import the manufactures of outside barbarians in exchange for our own produce. […] But your Ambassador has now put forward new requests which completely fail to recognize the Throne’s principle to “treat strangers from afar with indulgence,” and to exercise a pacifying control over barbarian tribes, the world over.

Kowtow and Convenient Lies of History

William Alexander: Emperor receiving the Embassy (1792-1794), British Museum WD 961, f.57(154)

James Gillray, The reception of the diplomatique and his suite, at the Court of Pekin, National Portrait Gallery, London

Clash of civilizations?

China:

  • Tianxia / “All under heaven”: concentric hierarchy of foreign relations
  • Sino-centrism: China as “middle kingdom”
  • Tribute system based on ritual submission

The West:

  • Sovereignty and equality of nations
  • Nations are free and independent of one another
  • “Natural law”: law of nature applicable to nations
  • Free trade as an inherent right: If abridged, a state had the right to enforce that freedom.

Or was it a meeting of equals?

  • EIC vs. Cohongs: two government-recognized monopolies
  • England vs. Qing China: two empires with universal pretensions

From mercantilism to free trade

Mercantilists

  • Trade as zero-sum game
  • Increase exports, decrease imports
  • Connected to bullionism: wealth of nation = gold and silver reserves
  • Trade restrictions: tariffs, monopolies, exclusive patents

Free Trade

  • Division of labor: Comparative advantage, rather than absolute advantage
  • Trade as mutually beneficial
  • Less government intervention, lower trade barriers
  • Financial system based on banking

Free trade as political doctrine

Emmerich de Vattel (1714-1767)

General obligation of nations to carry on mutual commerce.

ALL men ought to find on earth the things they stand in need of. […] The introduction of dominion and property could not deprive men of so essential a right; and, consequently it cannot take place without leaving them, in general, some mean of procuring what is useful or necessary to them. This mean is commerce; by it every man may still supply his wants.

Emmerich de Vattel, The Law of Nations or the Principles of Natural Law (1758)

End of China Monopoly

View of Canton factories, British Library
  • 1600: East India Company chartered to contest Portuguese control of East Indies
  • 1834: End of EIC’s Trade Monopoly in China

Rise of Nation-States

A reverse-glass export painting of the Thirteen Factories in Guangzhou.
  • Congress of Vienna in 1815: A sovereign state recognized as having the ability to exert influence on a global scale.
  • Powerful, centralized state as index of the level of progress and civilization
  • Comity of nations based on mutual and equal sovereignty, regardless of size, wealth, or power

China’s Trade Surplus

Opium smokers
  • “Our Celestial Empire possesses all things in prolific abundance and lacks no product within its borders.”
  • What does China want?

Rise of opium

Examining Hall

Mixing Room

Balling Room

Drying Room

Stacking Room

British-Chinese-Indian trade triangle

The Stacking Room, Opium Factory at Patna India, Opium Factory at Patna India in The Truth about Opium Smoking, 1882, Lithograph after W. S. Sherwill, ca. 1850
  • Great Britain, exported opium grown in India and sold it to China
  • Indian opium replaced silver as medium of trade
  • The British used opium profits to purchase Chinese porcelain, silk, and tea

Missing element: American connection

Fur trade triangle:

  • Boston ships sail around South America to exchange iron chisels for sea otter fur with the Native Americans on the northwest coast.
  • Ships sail westward across the Pacific to trade fur for teas, silks, and other goods in Canton.

Cotton trade:

  • British plantations produced opium in India and sold it in China.
  • The silver was shipped to the United States to buy raw cotton.
  • Raw cotton from the South shipped to England to manufacture cloth.
  • English cloth was shipped to India, the proceeds of which then bought more opium.
  • Opium provided liquidity for Britain to buy slave-produced American cotton.

Windfall from the East

The Astor House in 1862, with St. Paul’s Chapel to the left and Trinity Church behind it
  • After the American Revolution, U.S. merchants started trading independently in the East Indies and challenged the monopoly of the British East India Company
  • Mercantile wealth helped concentrate capital, create wealth, and establish modern business corporations
  • Canton trade fed anti-British sentiment at the same time as it boosted American national spirit after independence

The World Made by Opium

People working along shore and wharf on the waterfront in Salem, Massachusetts.

View of the American Garden, Canton, China, 1844–45. Peabody Essex Museum.

Debate: How should the Qing respond?

Qing official smoking opium
  • Silver outflow: Trade surplus with England turned deficit in 1826
  • Increasing opium smuggling
  • Growing users and addicts: “the magistrate or governor who did not smoke opium was an exception”

Discuss: Lin Zexu’s Letter to Queen Victoria

Lancun, Portrait of Queen Victoria, British Museum
  • What is Lin Zexu’s message to Queen Victoria?
  • How might his letter have been received in England?

Treaty of Nanjing

Signing Treaty of Nanking
  • 21 million silver taels of indemnity
  • End of Cohong and Canton system
  • Era of treaty ports: five coastal cities opened for foreign trade
  • Extraterritoriality: foreign nationals subject to home laws for offenses in China
  • Britain granted “most favored nation” status

“Sick man of Asia”

William Thomas Saunders, Opium Smoker (1867), Metropolitan Museum of Art

“Century of humiliation”

Chiang Kai-shek

Opium War as the “First National Humiliation”: it “cut off the lifeblood of the state” and “threatened our people’s chance of survival.

China’s Destiny (1943)

New Opium War?

China-sourced Fentanyl Trafficking Flows, United States Drug Enforcement Administration (2020)

China was a painful victim of opium in history. […] But to our regret, some Americans believe that China is the primary source of fentanyl in the United States. Some even fantasize that China is shipping fentanyl to the United States “as a form of payback for the Opium Wars,” and that “North America has been flooded with precursor chemicals from China, stifling international efforts,” as I read from some opinion articles. These comments are false and misleading.

Chinese Ambassador Qin Gang Takes an Interview with Newsweek on the Fentanyl Issue, September 30, 2022

Population pressure

Year Population estimate
1650 150 million
1800 300 million
  • State involution
  • Increased migration and resource competition
  • Decreased agricultural productivity
  • Ecological degradation: deforestation, silting of Yellow River, etc.
  • Social dislocation: Talent glut

China’s Money Problem: Silver

The Qing ran on a bimetallic system.

Copper coins, for daily transactions

Silver, for tax payments

Qing monetary system

Copper coins

Bi-metallic system:

  • Unminted silver bullion + Minted copper cash coins
  • Market adjustment of relative supply of two metals in circulation
  • Copper cash (mostly from Japan) contracted while silver (from the New World) grew

Qing fiscal system

A government-designated shop where copper coins and small ingots of silver can be exchanged for larger ingots of silver to be used for paying taxes, from The Qianlong Emperor’s Southern Inspection Tour, Scroll Six: Entering Suzhou Along the Grand Canal

Before mid-19th century:

“Storing wealth among the people”

A government-designated shop where copper coins and small ingots of silver can be exchanged for larger ingots of silver to be used for paying taxes, from The Qianlong Emperor’s Southern Inspection Tour, Scroll Six: Entering Suzhou Along the Grand Canal

Partnership with gentry elites:

  • <1% population, 25% farmland, 5-8% of agricultural income
  • Preferential treatment: Taxed at 20%-50% the rate of common farmers
  • Gentry wealth to pay for local administrative costs

Major Qing fiscal reforms

“Storing wealth among the people”

Kangxi
b. 1654-1722, r. 1661-1722

  • Freeze basic land tax (1713)

Yongzheng
b. 1678-1735, r. 1723-1735

  • Introducing silver meltage fee
  • Folding head tax into land tax

Qianlong
b. 1711-1799, r. 1735-1796

  • Tax reductions: lower grain assessments
  • General remission of land taxes (1745)

Grand Canal Crisis

The Grand Canal in Ming and Qing China
  • Costs of maintenance mainly shared among local elites
  • Debate at court: Abandon or restore?
  • Sea shipping after 1840
  • Affected population as source of instability

Secret Societies: Agents of disorder

Chris Hellier: Secret societies or brotherhoods, which had their own rules and codes, were, in foreign eyes, often the initiators of revolts and rebellions. Engraving, 1884.
  • Apocalyptic messianism in its expectation of the day of judgment and the birth of a savior.
  • Practices included medical healing, sitting and breathing exercises, martial arts, and the chanting of spells and charms.
  • Synthesis of Buddhism, Daoism, and Manicheanism (religious movement founded in Persia in the 3rd century CE by Mani, who, as the “Apostle of Light”, predicts an eternal struggle between a good spiritual world of light, and an evil material world of darkness.)

White Lotus Rebellion

White Lotus Society
  • The White Lotus Rebellion occurred in China from 1796 to 1804.
  • Led by the White Lotus Society, which preached Buddhist teachings of Maitreya Buddhism promising the arrival of a savior to restore the faithful.
  • The rebels aimed to overthrow the Qing government and restore the Ming Dynasty.

White Lotus Rebellion: A Failed Suppression

White Lotus Society
  • What began as a local rebellion escalated into a serious political crisis due to Qing’s ill response.
  • Officials tasked with suppressing the rebellion were often half-hearted and exploited the situation for personal gain.
  • Hiring civilians became a way to misappropriate war funds, leading many dismissed troops to become rebels themselves and increasing the war’s costs.
  • The rebellion foreshadowed the Qing’s disintegration in the mid-nineteenth century.

Behind the Prosperous Age: “Involution”

Xu Yang (Chinese, active ca. 1750–after 1776) and assistants, The Qianlong Emperor’s Southern Inspection Tour, Scroll Six: Entering Suzhou along the Grand Canal, 68.8 x 1994 cm, Metropolitan Museum of Art

The troubles originated in the same population boom that founded the Qing success.

  • Jobs were scarce.
  • Success was nearly impossible in the tightly restricted (and corrupt) examination system.
  • The bureaucracy failed to appoint sufficient administrators even as the population doubled.
  • Taxes fell behind, as did the granary and canal system.

Debate: How should the Qing respond?

Qing official smoking opium
  • Silver outflow: Trade surplus with England turned deficit in 1826
  • Increasing opium smuggling
  • Growing users and addicts: “the magistrate or governor who did not smoke opium was an exception”

Lin Zexu’s Reform

Lady Strange - Alexander Murray (1843). Doings in China. London: Richard Bentley. p. ii.

The Daoguang Emperor (r. 1812-1850) opposed the operation of opium dens and appointed Lin Zexu as commissioner in 1838. Lin came up with a three-part plan:

  1. Offer rehabilitation for addicts in government sanitariums.
  2. Round up Chinese dealers and dismantle drug rings.
  3. Confiscate opium from foreign sellers and require them to sign agreements to exit the opium trade.

Discuss: Lin Zexu’s Letter to Queen Victoria

Lancun, Portrait of Queen Victoria, British Museum
  • What is Lin Zexu’s message to Queen Victoria?
  • How might his letter have been received in England?
  • Does Lin Zexu’s letter to Queen Victoria treat the Queen as an equal to the emperor?
  • Does he see Great Britain as of equal standing with China? Finally, with whom do you sympathize most in the letter? Why?

Showdown in Canton

Lin’s Position

  • Set up sanitariums and arrested over 1,600 Chinese dealers.
  • Surrounded 13 warehouses, holding 350 Europeans hostage for opium.
  • Negotiated with Elliot while denying ships food and water.
  • Destroyed over 2.6 million pounds of opium after merchants complied.

British position

  • Captain Charles Elliot, the British Superintendent of Trade opposed Lin’s methods and hostage-taking.
  • Elliot refused to sign a bond subjecting British citizens to Qing law, but promised to reimburse merchants before handing over opium.
  • Believed Canton system was inadequate for trade and sought formal diplomatic relations for unrestricted free trade.

Road to War

Chinese navy apprehending opium smugglers
  • Lin’s hostage-taking seen as an act of war.
  • Letter to Lord Palmerston, PM, infuriated the merchant lobby, who believed military response could enhance trade relations.
  • First shots of Opium War fired on September 4, 1839, near Hong Kong.
  • Opposition in England: A war more unjust in its origin, a war more calculated – to cover this country with permanent disgrace, I do not know, and I have not read of. (William Gladstone)

Treaty of Nanjing

Signing Treaty of Nanking
  • 21 million silver taels of indemnity
  • End of Cohong and Canton system
  • Era of treaty ports: five coastal cities opened for foreign trade
  • Extraterritoriality: foreign nationals subject to home laws for offenses in China
  • Britain granted “most favored nation” status

Why Didn’t China..

Why didn’t China have an indigenous Industrial Revolution, despite its wealth, stability, and high level of scientific achievement?

Share of global GDP in area chart

Explaining China’s Decline: Karl Marx

Karl Marx
  • Emphasized the role of class struggle and economic structures in societal development.
  • China’s feudal system and lack of a capitalist class hindered industrialization.
  • The absence of a revolutionary proletariat delayed modernization.

Explaining China’s Decline: Max Weber

Max Weber
  • Focused on cultural and religious factors influencing economic development.
  • Protestantism, particularly Calvinism, emphasized hard work, discipline, and frugality.
  • This work ethic encouraged a rational approach to economic activity and a systematic pursuit of profit.
  • Confucian values prioritized stability and harmony over individualism and capitalism.
  • Specifically, imperial examination system prioritized Confucian education over technical or scientific knowledge.
  • Additionally, lack of a rational legal framework and bureaucratic structures impeded China’s modernization.

Explaining China’s Decline: Mark Elvin

Mark Elvin
  • High-equilibrium Trap: Traditional systems and practices are effective enough to prevent change, making capital investment for improving efficiency unprofitable.
  • China’s economic and social structures were stable, leading to resistance against modernization efforts.
  • Indicates that the self-sustaining nature of the agrarian economy limited the motivation for industrial advancement.

Explaining China’s Decline: Kenneth Pomeranz

Kenneth Pomeranz
  • Rather than using “Europe” or “Asia” as units of analysis, focus on macro-regions: lower Yangzi vs England.
  • Both China and Western Europe had similar levels of economic development, including agricultural productivity and urbanization.
  • Coal and colonies: Europe’s access to New World resources, particularly through colonialism, provided a significant advantage. This influx of resources enabled Europe to industrialize rapidly.
  • European institutions, particularly regarding property rights and market structures, were not uniquely advantageous: land in China was, in practice, as freely alienable as in Europe.

Explaining China’s Decline: Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson and James Robinson

Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson and James Robinson
  • From 1500 to 1850, economic growth was strongest in areas with Atlantic trade and colonialism.
  • But the greatest growth came where monarchs had less power, enabling merchants to succeed.
  • This is why modern economic growth started in Britain instead of other European countries, and demonstrates the importance of societal institutions for a country’s prosperity.
  • Societies with a poor rule of law and institutions that exploit the population do not generate growth or change for the better.

Debate: The Great Divergence

  • Which theory do you find most convincing? Why? Do you have another explanation?
  • China vs. the West: What are the appropriate temporal and geographical units of comparison?
  • Are we even asking the right questions? “Why didn’t they modernize…”

“Failure Of the East”: A Bad Question?

  • European exceptionalism: European culture, technology or institutional superiority inevitably led to Western dominance.
  • Longue-durée perspective: 19th century as blip and return of China to power?